Pitching depth is always nice to have in baseball, and this year, there are plenty of team's that will need pitching to contend in 2013. The 2013 class of free agent starting pitchers actually isn't half bad, and in this article I will go through each and every one, and explain what they bring to the table.
Scott Baker- ($9.25 million club option)- Look for the Twins to decline his option because Baker is simply never healthy. The guy is great when on the field and I'm sure that he'll look to stay in Minnesota. Look for him to sign an incentive-based deal.
Eric Bedard- Bedard is a nice pitcher to have on your staff, and I was really surprised that the Pirates released him earlier in the year. He is definitely getting older and does have a problem with durability, but look for him to sign an incentive based deal just like Baker.
Joe Blanton- I'm not a big fan of Blanton but I am confident that he would be able to get a multiyear deal on the open market. He is a decent number 4 starter, but will never live up to his first round hype. He'll probably get a contract along the lines of 2-3 years, $8-11 million.
Bartolo Colon- I don't expect Colon to come back for the 2013 season, simply because he doesn't have anything to prove. His positive PED test doesn't really help his cause for getting a fresh contract either. If he does return, he'll probably sign a minor league deal.
Aaron Cook- Cook hasn't really had a great season with the Red Sox, and will likely sign a minor league deal with someone this winter. He is looking to turn around his career, so I would imagine that a return to Boston would be unlikely due to Fenway's hitter-friendly confines and Boston's willingness to get younger.
Kevin Correia- There actually may be quite a bit of teams interested in Correia due to the fact that he can serve as a swing-man, providing occasional spot starts. I can definitely see a team like San Diego going after him hard. He probably will, however, get a minor league deal at best.
Jorge De La Rosa- ($11 million player option)- Yea De La Rosa will probably take the money and run. Luckily it is his option so he can decide if he wants to stay in Colorado or not. Hmm, take $11 million for doing nothing or hit the open market following several major surgeries? He'll take the money.
Ryan Dempster- Dempster has had a nice bounce-back season and could get a solid offer from a team looking for a short-term fix in their rotation. Dempster is on the older side but can still serve as a #3 starter on a winning team. Look for him to sign a multiyear deal, getting maybe $7-11 million annually.
R.A. Dickey- ($5 million club option) There is no way that Dickey hits the open market. The Mets will pick up his option.
Scott Feldman- ($9.25 million club option)- I seriously doubt that Feldman will get his option picked up. The Rangers have so much pitching right now, and Feldman isn't even in the rotation. I'm not paying $9.25 million for a long-relief man. Anyway he could probably get a decent offer on the open market, possibly one-two years while earning $2 million annually.
Jeff Francis- Even though I don't think it makes sense, Francis will probably return to the Rockies in 2013, and will most likely be signed to yet another minor league deal. At this point, Francis is a #4 starter on a winning team. Now, factor in the Rockies' Coors Field confines, and I can see Francis having another poor season in 2013.
Gavin Floyd- ($9.5 million club option)- Hmm. This one is interesting. Floyd is a good pitcher, but is not worth $9.5 million in my eyes. I think that the White Sox will decline the option and try to bring him back in his actual price range, which is probably around $4-5 million.
Freddy Garcia- I think it might be that time for Garcia to hang up the cleats. His situation is similar to Bartolo Colon's, expect that Garcia didn't get convicted of using PEDs. Look for Garcia to retire but if he doesn't, a minor league deal is all he is getting.
Zack Greinke- Ahh the curious case of Zack Greinke. He turned down an $100 million contract extension with the Brewers earlier in the season, which tells me that he is going to be reaching for the stars this winter. He will easily be one of the most coveted players this off-season, and expect him to get massively overpaid.
Jeremy Guthrie- Guthrie had a horrible stint with Colorado, but has been amazing with the Royals since coming over in July. I think that the Royals may be interested in retaining him, and possibly having him serve as the team's #4-5 starter. However, the Royals have some young pitching prospects so they may want to let Guthrie go. Anyway, now that he has had such a great second half, I can see Guthrie getting a respectable contract. Perhaps a one year deal worth $4-5 million sounds about right.
Rich Harden- Who? Exactly. Harden's career has been a train-wreck over the past 5 or so years and I'd be surprised if a team even gives him a minor league deal.
Dan Haren- ($15.5 million club option)- It will be very interesting to see what the Angels do with Haren. The guy has been dreadful this year but we all know what he is capable of when he is on his A game. However, I expect the Angels to decline the option, and possibly try to re-sign him for a cheaper price. He could probably get a decent deal right now, but it's safe to say that being a free agent this off-season isn't really coming at the best time for Haren.
Roberto Hernandez- ($9 million club option)- Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) will get this option declined, and Cleveland will not bring him back. He is way to inconsistent to be worth $9 million in a season, and I expect him to sign either an incentive based deal or a minor league deal with someone else to re-up his value.
Tim Hudson- ($9 million club option)- Hudson's case is definitely an interesting one because he is having a great season, but is 37 years old. I expect Atlanta to exercise his option because of his veteran presence and ability to go out every fifth day and give quality starts. After this contract is up, he may want to retire, but that is a completely different topic to talk about.
Edwin Jackson- Jackson has had a good year with the Nationals, and I expect him to get a multiyear deal from someone. Maybe he'll actually stay with one team for more than a year. That would be something new for Jackson. On the serious note, he is a good #3 starter, and I expect the Nationals to keep him.
Hiroki Kuroda- Kuroda is having a good season, and I expect the Yankees to bring him back for the 2013 season. He'll probably get another one year deal, but expect him to get a slight raise, perhaps getting an annual salary of $12-14 million.
Francisco Liriano- Liriano is having yet another dreadful season, and I don't expect the White Sox to make an attempt to re-sign him. Liriano is the definition of a reclamation project, and will get signed to a minor league. Hopefully he gets his career back on track because I can tell that team's are losing faith in his abilities.
Kyle Lohse- Lohse will be yet another highly coveted pitcher this winter because he is having an incredible 2012 season. I still don't trust Lohse, and I think that he will be a bust where ever he goes, and I'm sure a team will massively overpay for him. When he's good, he's amazing. When he's bad, he is absolutely terrible.
Derek Lowe- It might be time for Lowe to hang up the cleats. Man you don't have anything else to play for. You already have 2 World Series rings. If Lowe is pursued by any team, look for him to sign a minor league deal.
Paul Maholm- ($6.5 million club option)- Maholm has had a good year, and is pitching like an ace down the stretch for Atlanta. I can see the Braves making a slight attempt at bringing him back, but if they don't I understand. Maholm is not a strikeout pitcher, and is probably a #3 pitcher at best. Look for him to get a one year deal, but it'll be worth more this time. I can see it being around $4-5 million.
Shaun Marcum- Marcum is another guy that is very good, when healthy. His situation is very similar to Scott Baker's. I can see Marcum getting more money than Baker, but the two are very similar when it comes to their careers.
Jason Marquis- Marquis has spent the majority of the season with the Padres putting up acceptable numbers. Now we can say that PETCO Park has helped his numbers, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Look for him to sign a minor league deal. I, and many of the GM's out there, wouldn't give Marquis a multiyear deal because he is out of his prime.
Daisuke Matsuzaka- Seems like yesterday when Dice-K was coming over to Boston with that amazing media attention. His career has been terrible, and I expect him to go back to Japan. There is some speculation that he may want to return there next season, and I'll be the first to say Good Riddance.
Brandon McCarthy- McCarthy is yet another pitcher who is money when healthy, but can never stay on the field. The guy is capable of being a great pitcher, but injuries have derailed his career for the most part. However, I expect him to get a solid contract because GM's out there know what he is capable of doing.
Kevin Millwood- Millwood should probably retire. He has had a decent comeback season, but doesn't have anything else to prove at this point. He probably won't retire, even though I think he should, and a minor league deal will probably be coming his way.
Jaime Moyer- Do it Jaime. Fill out those retirement papers. You know you want to. Don't pull a Favre.
Roy Oswalt- Oswalt has had a bad year with the Rangers, but he'll probably get a one year major league deal. He has had injury issues in the past, but I think that there will be a team stupid enough to pursue him and give him a decent deal.
Carl Pavano- Pavano is not deserving of a contract in the MLB. The guy shouldn't even get a minor league deal. That is how bad he has been with the Twins. The Twins will obviously not want to re-sign him and I think that he may retire.
Jake Peavy- ($22 million club option)- Peavy has had a good 2012 season, and will probably be in the running for AL Comeback Player of the Year. However, I don't trust him enough to give him $22 million. Why is he all of a sudden good again? The world may never know, but I know for a fact that giving him that much money would be a bad decision. Look for the White Sox to decline the option, and try to bring him back for less money.
Anibal Sanchez- I'm very interested to see where Sanchez lands this winter. I doubt that Detroit brings him back, because A) he has been terrible with them, and B) they have a surplus of pitching prospects on the way. Sanchez will probably get a decent contract, and despite his struggles this year, is still one of the more underrated pitchers in the game.
Jonathan Sanchez- Wow. Sanchez's value has gone right down the toilet, and it ain't coming back up. Look for Sanchez to get a minor league deal, only to see the team that signs him realize how bad he is, therefore releasing him shortly after.
Ervin Santana- ($13 million club option) Santana is extremely inconsistent and it's annoying to see because he has the ability to be a great pitcher. The Angels will obviously decline his option. Look for him to get a decent one year deal on the open market, but don't expect it to surpass the $3-4 million range.
Joe Saunders- Saunders is a decent pitcher to have on your squad, and I expect him to actually get a multiyear deal from someone out there. Is he worth it? Probably not, but every year we have that team that will overpay to get what it wants, and Saunders will probably get more money than he deserves.
James Shields- ($9 million club option)- Despite the occasional bad outings, Shields will probably have his option exercised, thus making him locked up for the 2013 season. If the Rays wanted Shields to go, they would have traded him last month.
Carlos Villanueva- Villanueva hasn't been able to stay healthy, and I actually believe that the Blue Jays are going to make a strong push to keep him. I can see him either getting a one year deal, or possibly a small contract extension. The one-year deal is more likely.
Chien-Ming Wang- Wang is another reclamation project, but I'd be hesitant to take a flier on him. We all know that he can't stay healthy, and is decent when healthy. I can see a bunch of team's checking in on him, but there is virtually no chance that he gets a multiyear deal.
Kip Wells- Wells got released by the Padres a few weeks ago after a bunch of poor starts in the minors and majors. I expect Wells to either return to an independent league, or retire. The man has nothing to prove, and clearly doesn't have anything left in the tank.
Randy Wolf- Man I am getting tired of typing out minor league deal. Unfortunately it looks like Wolf will be getting one of those following a rough 2012 season. He is a perfect example of an innings eater, but is honestly nothing else after that.
Chris Young- Well we could say that Young is a reclamation project, but he has already gotten time with the Mets to prove himself. He isn't a horrible option, but I'd stay away from him. His injury history really concerns me.
Carlos Zambrano- Zambrano has had yet another EH season. He has spent most of the 2012 campaign working out of the bullpen, and I'm sure that he isn't thrilled about that since it is lowering his value. He'll probably get a minor league deal, but proceed with caution, we all know about his temper.
As you can see, there will be plenty of risky options out there this winter. Pitching may sometimes be hard to acquire, and getting a veteran via free agency could be the way to go for some of these smaller market teams. Anyway, I will be doing another article similar to this one, except it will definitely be shorter, and obviously consist of different players playing different positions.
No comments:
Post a Comment