Thursday, October 18, 2012

Fantasy talk: Max Scherzer status report

Pitching in the Tigers' rotation is tough, considering that you are always going to be overshadowed by Justin Verlander, who is the best pitcher in baseball. However, it is debatable that Max Scherzer, now that he has had his breakout season we've all been waiting for, could be an ace on almost any other team. Scherzer came into the season under the impression that he was going to be a #3 or #4 starter at best, but really opened some eyes throughout the entire season, and especially down the stretch.

Scherzer was drafted in the 1st round (11th overall) by the Diamondbacks in the 2006 draft. He was a highly touted prospect in their organization, and quickly rose through their farm system. By the time 2008 came around, he was having success in Triple-A and earned that call-up to the big leagues. He split time as a relief pitcher and starter, but had success nonetheless. A 3.05 ERA with a 10.6 K/9 was certainly impressive, and Arizona was excited about his future with the club. He spent the entire 2009 season in the starting rotation, and had a decent season. He posted a 4.12 ERA in 30 starts, but managed to rack up 174 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks then had a major decision to face. They chose to be involved in the three team deal centered around Curtis Granderson, who was going from the Yankees to the Tigers. The Diamondbacks ultimately gave up Scherzer in the deal, trading him to the Tigers. Arizona ultimately got Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson in return. The Diamondbacks knew that giving up Scherzer was a risk, considering that he had such high upside. Generally when a pitcher goes from the National League to the American League, his numbers take a slight hit due to the tough hitters in the AL, but this was not the case with Scherzer. He had his first true good season in 2010, posting a 3.50 ERA in 31 starts while striking out 184. With that being said, Detroit expected him to continue his success in 2011, but that did not happen. He struggled all year long, and let up more than his fair share of hits, but managed to still strike out 174 in 195.0 innings. 

Coming into the season, I'd be the first person to tell you that Scherzer would be a #3 pitcher at best. I've always envisioned him as an innings eater with explosive stuff when he is on his A game, and that is sort of how I still view him. He did have a great 2012 season, posting a 3.74 ERA in 32 starts while racking up 231 strikeouts in only 187.2 innings. For the most part, he was fantastic, but honestly I would have liked to see him be more of a consistent pitcher. I say that because some nights I would see him throwing, lets say 7 innings for example, and striking out 11 hitters with 1 or 2 walks, but on the other nights I'd see the complete opposite. On his bad days he would go around 4 innings with 3-4 walks and 4-5 strikeouts. With that being said, Scherzer is not consistent enough to be a consistent performer. Could he change that? Of-course, but that is my opinion. 

Granted, the guy had an amazing season, and is deserving of the credentials that he has received. However, looking ahead toward the 2013 fantasy season I wouldn't draft him too early. Another thing about him is that Scherzer is a control pitcher, but does have an electrifying fastball that can really dial up the radar gun. It is odd to have a control pitcher to get so many strikeouts, because typically they generate ground ball outs instead. I suppose that even if Scherzer is his inconsistent self again in 2013, he can still be relied on for his great strikeout rate and as an innings eater. 

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