In this article, I am going to give you my predictions on where the top 50 soon-to-be-free agents are heading this winter. I will also give you what I think each player will be getting, and a few teams that could have interest in them.
50. Jonny Gomes- Gomes has been very good for the Athletics in 2012, and I actually do have a feeling that he will go back to Oakland. There will be a lot of teams interested in him, particularly the Indians, but I believe that he likes Oakland enough to take a minor pay cut. My Prediction: Oakland Athletics, 2 year, $4 million contract.
49. Carlos Lee- Lee has expressed interest in staying with the Marlins, but I think that Marlins would be crazy to bring him back. I can honestly see the Astros bringing him back as a DH, and a mentor for the younger players. My Prediction: Houston Astros, 1 year, $4 million contract.
48. Juan Pierre- Pierre had a very good 2012 season serving as a part time player with the Phillies, and I think that Philadelphia will try to retain him. I can see a number of teams interested in him, most notably the Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 2 years, $5 million.
47. Carlos Villanueva- Villanueva definitely won't be resigned by the Blue Jays, considering that GM Alex Anthopoulos has publicly doubted his heath and durability. Villanueva is a guy who is actually a pretty decent pitcher when healthy, and I can see him signing with a team like the Padres to revamp his career. My Prediction: San Diego Padres, 2 years, $8 million.
46. Kelly Johnson- I wouldn't be surprised if the Blue Jays let Johnson walk this off-season. They are trying to get younger, and Johnson clearly doesn't fit in their long-term plans. The second base market is definitely weak this winter, so look for Johnson to get massively overpaid. I know that this is a shot in the dark, but I can see the White Sox taking a look at him, even though they have (former first round pick) Gordon Beckham. My Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years, $23 million.
45. Melky Cabrera- Ah, the curious case of Melky Cabrera. It will be very tough to predict which Cabrera a bidding team will get. Will they get the Cabrera who hit .255 with Atlanta, or the player hitting over .340 while on PED's with San Francisco. It will be a crap-shoot, but I still expect him to get a modest contract from someone. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 2 years, $20 million.
44. Joakim Soria- I have a feeling that the Royals are going to cut Soria loose this off-season. He looked very promising when he first came up, but poor play and serious injuries have greatly affected his career, and I believe that the organization is already thinking about replacing him with Greg Holland. I can definitely see the Red Sox being interested, but I could also say the Mets have a shot at him as well. My Prediction: Mets/Red Sox, 1 year deal, $4 million (Incentive-based).
43. Francisco Rodriguez- K-Rod had a dreadful 2012 season, and his value is incredibly low right now. The Mets are looking for bullpen help, but I doubt that they would bring him back. He is going to have to take a huge pay-cut in order to get a decent contract. I can see the Cardinals signing him, and using him as their setup man. My Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, 1 year deal, $3.5 million.
42. Eric Chavez- Chavez will most likely retire after this season, considering that he was leaning towards retirement before he signed a minor league contract with the Yankees two years ago. He has had a good 2012 season, and will definitely see some respectable offers. Honestly if he stays in the game I can see the Yankees just re-signing him because he isn't anything more than a platoon player at this point in his career. My Prediction: New York Yankees, 1 year deal, $850k.
41. Ryan Madson- After missing the entire 2012 season following Tommy John surgery, look for Madson to get an incentive-based deal. Just like Soria and K-Rod, he will get some interest but does have some things to worry about, in this case it's his health. I can see the Mets making a push, but the Indians ultimately grabbing him once they trade Chris Perez. My Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 1 year, $2.8 million (Incentive-based).
40. Gavin Floyd- Assuming that the White Sox don't pick up his option, Floyd will become a free agent this winter, and unfortunately for him his stats aren't looking so hot right now. However, pitching is very important in this game, and there will be several teams interested. I can see the Orioles signing him to a respectable deal. My Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, 2 years, $11 million.
39. Ervin Santana- Santana's option will probably be declined, simply because he is one of the most inconsistent starters in the game. I don't see the Angels bringing him back, and like Floyd, he could appeal to many teams. I can see the Orioles, Red Sox, Nationals, and Blue Jays being interested in him this winter. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 2 years, $9 million.
38. Shaun Marcum- Marcum will probably not return to the Brewers as they look to get younger. If Marcum stayed healthy the entire season, his value would have been so much higher. However elbow problems have decreased his value, but I do believe that he will have a multiyear deal nonetheless. I can definitely see the Royals or Orioles signing him. My Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 2 years, $12 million.
37. Jose Valverde- Papa Grande had a rough 2012 season, and will probably have to settle for a setup man's job in 2013. I doubt that the Tigers want him and his attitude back next season, but they really don't have any other options. Dotel and Benoit don't have any closing experience, so I can see the Tigers giving Valverde another year just to re-gain his value. My Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 1 year, $4.5 million.
36. Jeremy Affeldt- The Giants have a great bullpen, and could PROBABLY afford to lose Affeldt. However, he has pitched so well with them, and can get both lefties and righties out. Having a bullpen with two left handers in Javier Lopez and Affeldt is pretty special, and I think that the Giants will make a push to retain him. My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 2 years, $11 million.
35. Russell Martin- Martin will appeal to several teams, and I believe that the Yankees SHOULD get rid of him, even though they probably won't. Anyway I can see the Yankees overpaying to keep him. My Prediction: New York Yankees, 2 years, $13 million.
34. Brett Myers- I don't expect the White Sox to bring Myers back as they will probably look to get younger and cheaper. Myers is definitely an interesting case here because he could also be used as a starting pitcher if need be. I expect that he will gather a good amount of interest, considering that he is also a strike-thrower (doesn't walk that many batters.) My Prediction: New York Mets, 1 year, $3.5 million.
33. Jonathan Broxton- Broxton had a great comeback season and I expect him to get some nice respectable offers this winter. There is always a market for bullpen help, so he will get a lot of interest like Myers, K-Rod, Soria, and others. I'll say that he signs with the Tigers, assuming that they would rather have him than Valverde. My Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 2 years, $13 million.
32. Jeremy Guthrie- I expect that the Royals bring back Guthrie because he will be cheap and they have really liked what he has done with them. Also, GM Dayton Moore has stated that he would like to bring back Guthrie, so I expect him to stay with Kansas City at a reasonable rate. My Prediction: 2 years, $8 million.
31. Andy Pettitte- Pettitte sounds like he really wants to come back for another season in 2013. If he does come back, I expect him to stay with the Yankees. They would probably overpay as well, because their rotation is in rough shape and Pettitte is great in the post-season. So, assuming he stays in the game... My Prediction: New York Yankees, 1 year, $4.5 million.
30. Ichiro Suzuki- Ichiro could either stay with the Yankees or return to the Mariners. I highly doubt that the Mariners would bring him back, as they are looking to get younger. I have a feeling that at this point in his career, Ichiro just wants to win, and what better team to win with then the Yankees? He'll probably re-sign with New York. My Prediction: New York Yankees, 1 year, $3.5 million.
29. Cody Ross- I expect that the Red Sox will re-sign Ross, because he had a great 2012 season and, unlike many of his other teammates, is not a headache to deal with. He has expressed interest in staying, and now that Boston has all this money to spend, I expect him to sign a pretty respectable deal, probably getting overpaid in the process. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 3 years, $21 million.
28. J.P. Howell- I've never been a big fan of Howell because he would never stay healthy but he actually had a very strong 2012 season, and his price tag is high at the moment. Considering that the Rays could easily replace him, he is as good as gone. Some team will probably overpay him, and I expect either the Mets or Dodgers to grab him. My Prediction: Mets/Dodgers, 2 year deal, $6 million.
27. Marco Scutaro- Scutaro has been a spark plug for the Giants, and has definitely helped them reach the point that they are at today. They will definitely try to re-sign him because he is A) A fan favorite, and B) A cheap, veteran presence that can help Brandon Crawford develop. My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 2 year deal, $10 million.
26. Shane Victorino- I highly doubt that the Dodgers will look to bring Victorino back for another season, as Carl Crawford will be returning from Tommy John surgery and will be ready by next spring. I can definitely see the Phillies trying to bring Victorino back, and he could possibly go to a team like the Nationals if the money is there. Perhaps, now I'm thinking outside the box here, he could go to the Rays if B.J. Upton leaves via free agency. My Prediction: Washington Nationals, 1 year, $4 million.
25. Lance Berkman- Berkman has had a great career but injuries have gotten the best of him, and it is going to be time that he will finally hang up the cleats. My Prediction: Retirement.
24. Kevin Youkilis- I doubt that the Red Sox would bring back Youkilis, because they have Will Middlebrooks at third base. The White Sox could bring him back, but like I said earlier, they will probably try to get younger. The Braves could take a look at him, and same with the Yankees, but Youkilis in pinstripes is unlikely. My Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 2 years, $15 million.
23. Brandon McCarthy- McCarthy is a great pitcher but never stays healthy. I expect him to get massively overpaid this winter, and it might be from a division rival like the Angels or Rangers. The Orioles are also a possibility. My Prediction: Texas Rangers, 2 years, $10 million.
22. Anibal Sanchez- The Tigers are definitely going to try to re-sign Sanchez because he has been good in the post-season and they didn't just throw away their top prospect in Jacob Turner at Miami just for a half year of service time. However, Sanchez will be highly coveted by several teams, such as the Twins and Orioles, and that could pry him away from the Motor City. My Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 2 years, $14 million.
21. Mike Adams- Adams is one of the most underrated relievers in the game but the Rangers COULD probably afford to let him walk. He is on the wrong side of 30 and a multiyear deal is always risky for older relief pitchers. I expect Milwaukee to be interested in bringing him back, as well as the Phillies, Mets, and Blue Jays. My Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 2 years, $9 million.
20. Edwin Jackson- I'll admit it I was surprised when Jackson signed a one year deal with Washington last winter. I thought that he was worth a multiyear deal, and he probably received a few of them, but apparently likes the year-by-year contracts. He has been good for the most part with the Nationals this year, but I don't see him staying with them. It is possible, but I think that he will get overpaid by someone else. My Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays, 3 years, $30 million.
19. Ryan Ludwick- Ludwick has had a great comeback season in 2012, and seems to really like it in Cincinnati. I expect the Reds to try and bring him back, but I think that it is better if they don't. They have Chris Heisey waiting under him and I want to see what he can do while playing everyday. Ludwick will definitely get a lot of interest, perhaps from the Mets, Giants, or Rays. My Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 2 years, $14 million.
18. B.J. Upton- I have a strong feeling that Upton is leaving Tampa Bay, and I don't think Tampa Bay is going to make a real push to re-sign him, simply because they are a small market team and he is going to look for a gigantic deal. I can see the Nationals signing him, sticking him in center field, therefore moving Harper to left field and making Mike Morse expendable. My Prediction: Washington Nationals, 4 years, $60 million.
17. Dan Haren- Haren is very inconsistent, but I expect the Angels to try and bring him back. His $15.5 million option will be declined, but I can see the two sides trying to work out a deal that will keep Haren in Los Angeles for one more year to up his price tag. My Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, 1 year deal, $6.5 million.
16. Rafael Soriano- Soriano will most likely decline his option for next year, because he has had an excellent 2012 season filling in for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees' closer. There will be a number of teams interested in him, but I can see him going back to the Yankees because they will overpay for him as they will be unsure about Rivera's health going forward. My Prediction: New York Yankees, 3 years, $41 million (massive overpay).
15. Mike Napoli- Napoli was one of the best catchers in the game last year, but had a terrible 2012 season and his value is pretty low right now. The catching market is weak, so he will get some interest and I expect there to be SOME respectable offers on the table for him. My Prediction: Mets/Marlins/Rangers, 2 years, $15 million.
14. Ryan Dempster- Before Dempster left the Cubs, he expressed interest in staying with them when he would become a free agent this winter. I don't know if he still feels this way after finally being on a winning team for the first time in god knows how long, but a reunion is possible. However, I expect him to get a huge deal from someone, possibly the Orioles, Yankees, Cardinals or Dodgers. My Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, 3 years, $36 million.
13. Mariano Rivera- Assuming that Mo is coming back for another season, he will definitely be in a Yankees uniform. He is a Yankee for life and wants to retire on the high note, you can't blame the guy. My Prediction: New York Yankees, 1 year, $8 million.
12. A.J. Pierzynski- Just like all of these other White Sox free agents, Pierzynski could be moving on to another team in 2013. Tyler Flowers is quietly developing into a decent catcher, and could be Pierzynski's successor. I have a feeling that Pierzynski will get overpaid, because it is a coincidence that his breakout year was during his walk year. My Prediction: Texas Rangers (assuming Napoli leaves) 2 years, $21 million.
11. Hiroki Kuroda- I didn't know what to think about the Kuroda signing last year, but it turned out to be one heck of a bargain. Kuroda really stood up and proved his value. Despite his older age, I expect him to get a very nice multiyear deal to stay in the Bronx. My Prediction: 3 years, $35 million.
10. Angel Pagan- The Giants need to keep Pagan. He has been very good for them this year and they definitely need him considering that they will probably not bring back Melky Cabrera. Pagan is in his prime and will seek a decent contract, but the Giants should be able to match his offer. They better match his offer, because their offense would be very weak without him. My Prediction: San Francisco, 3 years, $35 million.
9. Torii Hunter- Hmm. Hunter is an interesting player. He first said that he would love to stay in L.A., but then went on to say that Boston would be a good fit for him. I doubt that he will stay in L.A., because they will not offer him the money that he will seek. They already have enough bloated contracts, and adding one more will not help anything. I actually think that Hunter would be a decent fit with the Red Sox. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 3 years, $35 million.
8. Nick Swisher- I don't expect Swisher to stay in a Yankees uniform if they go after Josh Hamilton. Swisher has also said that he expects to get a "Jayson Werth" type of deal, which is not happening. Swisher is a good player but is not worth $120+ million. One could say that the Red Sox could have interest, but I'll go out of the box here and say the Braves, who have always liked him. My Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 5 years, $70 million.
7. Adam LaRoche- LaRoche has had a really solid 2012 season and has expressed desire to "stick around" with the Nationals. However, he has also said that he wouldn't be willing to "turn down what could be two or three more extra years somewhere else" which indicates that he might not be as loyal as we all think he is. I think that a few teams will be involved, most notably the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, or Pirates. My Prediction: Texas Rangers, 3 years, $35 million.
6. Kyle Lohse- I've never liked Kyle Lohse's stuff, and I wouldn't trust him with a long-term deal. It is a coincidence that he is suddenly performing like an ace during his walk year, but he has been dominant, and that will make his value go through the roof. Pitching is hard to come by, and Lohse will be a top-tier pitcher in this year's free agent market, so look for him to get a nice deal, My Prediction: Red Sox / Yankees/ Tigers, 4 year deal, $55 million.
5. David Ortiz- Ortiz probably doesn't want to stay with the Red Sox, but money talks, and now that the Red Sox have cleared a lot of their payroll, he can basically ask for way more than he's worth. I expect him to stay with Boston. My Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 3 years, $40 million.
4. Jake Peavy- Peavy will probably stay with the White Sox after they decline his ridiculous $22 million option. Then they can negotiate on a long-term deal that should keep him in Chicago for the next 3-4 years or so. Do I agree with that? No, but that is probably what is going to happen. My Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 4 years, $75 million.
3. Michael Bourn- The Braves are going to do everything they can to keep Bourn, because they gave up a package of nice prospects for him. They didn't make a splash last year, but re-signing Bourn would definitely give their fans hope for next season as they will be looking to finally make it past the wild-card spot in the playoffs. My Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 6 years, $95 million.
2. Zack Greinke- Greinke is an interesting case because he turned down a 5 year, $100 million extension to stay in Milwaukee. I do believe that he will get over $100 million, and I doubt that the Angels retain him. With that in mind, he could go to a team like the Dodgers, who have shown us that they are willing to spend the big bucks, or he could go to a team like the Orioles, who desperately need pitching. My Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, 5 years, $115 million.
1. Josh Hamilton- Hamilton is easily going to be the most coveted player on the market this winter, and it is very hard to say where he will end up. His off the field problems have slightly diminished his value, but the guy is a natural on the field and someone will give him the money that he will desire. I personally think that the Rangers should keep him, but a team like the Yankees could swoop in and make a bid as well. My Prediction: Texas Rangers, 7 years, $175 million.
No comments:
Post a Comment